The AFC Isn’t Just a Conference – It’s a Fight for Survival.
By David Johnson
Smyrna High School!
On February 9, 2025, I sat as one of the over 120 million viewers of Super Bowl LIX, and stared, as a devout Broncos fan myself, in jubilation as the Philadelphia Eagles thrashed the Kansas City Chiefs 40-22. That day was the crumbling of a divisional stranglehold that lasted almost a decade, and the fall of a giant that had won 3 Super Bowls in the past 5 years.
Not only that, but I knew a new day had come. The failures of the Old Guard – The Baltimore Ravens and Chiefs missing this year’s playoffs, and the Buffalo Bills’ Divisional Round loss to the Denver Broncos in a rather heartbreaking fashion – opened the way for younger teams to conquer spots. Teams like the aforementioned Broncos, New England Patriots, and Jacksonville Jaguars, despite concerns about schedule strength (more appropriately, the lack of it), have built well-rounded franchises themselves. Denver’s defense carried them to victory when their quarterback couldn’t, and the caliber of the men up front for Jacksonville and New England was MVP-level.
The drastic rise of previously fringe playoff and rebuilding teams this season leaves plenty of room for speculation about next year. And the Old Guard’s championship windows have narrowed these past few seasons, but with most of their pieces intact, the AFC should be even more entertaining this year. Here are key ways AFC teams should take an advantage in any way they can next year:
The Alpha Arms Race: You NEED a WR1
Role Models – Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals
Causes for Concern – Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers
Having a well-rounded, versatile wide receiver room can be jet fuel for an offense, but it goes without saying that there needs to be an Alpha the quarterback can look to for splash plays and contested catches. Teams that already have the surrounding supporters need that consistent source of volume.
Teamwork does not always make the dream work. The Packers and Bills have consistently shown in the past two seasons that committees only achieve great success in the corporate space. Since the departure of Davante Adams in 2021, no Green Bay receiver has eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark, the closest being Jayden Reed in 2024. Jordan Love has excelled at spreading out the ball, and all of Green Bay’s receivers are young and versatile. But when will one of them pick up the pieces and put them together?
When the Bills traded Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans in April 2024, they used the draft pick they received as capital to select a defensive player. However, they chose not to supplement the Alpha spot left by Diggs, leaving Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and other temporary pieces to try to fill the gap. Coleman proved early on not to be the number 1 option we thought he could be, and Shakir, while quick and explosive, is more of a number 2. Diggs’ departure always seemed to leave a ghost in the Bills, even with Josh Allen pulling off superhuman play, that the Bills have struggled to exorcise.
One of the Steelers’ biggest regrets of the season had to have been letting George Pickens go for draft capital when they were gearing up for a championship run. Pickens definitely had his character concerns back in the Steel City, but attempting to replace him with a receiver, though strong and somewhat explosive, who was a below-average route-runner, was not a good indication. Not to mention that Metcalf had been purged from Seattle due to getting his chain snatched by While Pickens enjoyed a career year across the board with Dak Prescott, an early MVP candidate, throwing him the ball, Aaron Rodgers had to watch in disappointment sometimes, as interceptions he threw were due to Metcalf simply not following through on his routes. Pickens outpaced Metcalf in PFF grade (85.9 to 72.6), receiving yards (1429 to 850), and receiving touchdowns (9 to 6). Dallas is set to have a dangerous wide receiver duo for the next few years, while Pittsburgh remains in limbo.
The variety of schemes and playmaking styles today makes it easier than ever to develop high-usage receivers. These anchors can even be in the form of TE1s. Trey McBride had Jacoby Brissett, a known journeyman, as his most consistent quarterback, yet put up numbers that outpaced most wide receivers in the league. 126 receptions for 1239 yards and 11 touchdowns? Those are elite numbers for any type of pass-catcher, not to mention the numbers of a player with a large usage percentage in the offense. While they didn’t translate to many wins, this kind of consistency is key to taking an AFC team with championship aspirations to the next level.
The Battles Start in the Trenches
Role Models – Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos
Causes for Concern – Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders
Do I even have to say it? To be a true champion, you must have ability on both sides of the ball. You have to be able to both protect the quarterback and rush your opponents effectively. That is the hallmark of Super Bowl-caliber teams. The last time a team that was truly horrible on one side and good on the other won it all was in 2015. The Denver Broncos could apply pressure when it mattered most; I think Von Miller wouldn’t hesitate to explain that. Cam Newton would also concur.
Needless to say, Justin Herbert and Geno Smith got sacked…a lot. It seemed like an interdivisional competition to see who could get sacked the most. Both experienced career highs in sacks, 55 for Smith and 54 for Herbert. That’s around 3.7 per game for Smith and 3.4 per game for Herbert. LA’s and LV’s offensive lines finished 30th and 32nd, respectively, in PFF’s final rankings. In fact, LA’s failure to protect Herbert (6 sacks allowed!) severely hampered his ability to do…well, anything, really.
On the other side of the ball, Los Angeles has standout, All-Pro-caliber players such as Derwin James and Khalil Mack, while Las Vegas has the established veteran Maxx Crosby as its cornerstone. However, individuals can’t do what the committee can. That’s partially why both teams ranked in the bottom 15 in PFF’s final defensive line rankings. As much as these players bring fans to the stadium, the upcoming draft should prioritize foundational pieces for the offensive and defensive lines.
Deadline Pressure: Free Agency Matters Now More Than Ever
Role Models – Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys
Causes for Concern – San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints
While the draft is still the place to develop stars and rejuvenate rosters, free agency is where to find players who elevate the foundation. And with NIL payments attracting athletes out of the potential draft pool, the necessity of free agency as a source for missing pieces has become even clearer. This split mindset has proved beneficial this year.
A team that splurged on free agency this past year was the Patriots. They knew what they had (a gunslinging young talent with a month as his last name) and, with the experienced coaching pedigree of Mike Vrabel they brought in, started to build around it, spending a league-leading $365 million in free agency this past offseason. They didn’t bring in scrubs either, but immediate impact players: WR Stefon Diggs, still an elite route-runner and pass catcher; LBs Robert Spillane and Harold Landry III, who were captains of their former teams; DT Milton Williams, a breakout defensive player fresh off a Super Bowl championship; CB Carlton Davis III, who excelled on the line of scrimmage the year prior; and many others.
Being an optimist, I’d think it’s fair to say that the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers both won in terms of finding new running backs. This past offseason, despite Rico Dowdle’s 2024 breakout, in which he logged 1,076 yards on 4.6 yards a pop, the front office was doubtful, and they saw greener pastures long-term. I mean, I wouldn’t blame them: He blew up from less than 400 yards prior to eclipsing the 1000+ yard mark.
Carolina’s rebuild seemed to bear fruit. Though top pick Tetairoa McMillan showed his caliber early on in the season, the same wasn’t true for Rico Dowdle. That is, until the 23 carry, 206-yard game against the Dolphins in Week 5 blew Fantasy Football managers away. If they were drooling then, they slobbered at his following revenge game, in which he racked up 183 yards on the ground. The improved play of Dowdle, McMillan, and former first-round pick Bryce Young was a huge part of why they ended up in the spot they were in.
On the other hand, there is being so fixated on individual players that you have no cap to play with the other kids. San Francisco had so much money tied up in players such as Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, and Brock Purdy (A 34.74% cap hit!) that they were unable to retain other key players such as Leonard Floyd (Falcons), Talanoa Hufanga and Dre Greenlaw (Broncos), Charvarius Ward (Colts), and many others. New Orleans is in the same kind of boat, except theirs is underwater, with no hope of going up. Their cap space is actually negative, and they are overpaying aging and underproducing players across the roster.
That said, if AFC teams seek to get foundational pieces, the draft is still stacked. But if teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins want to elevate their ceilings, free agency should always be considered. And a balance must be maintained between the contracts of new acquisitions and the pieces already rostered.
Revenge of the D-Fence: Defensive Minds are the Best Minds
Role Models – Houston Texans, New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks
Causes for Concern – Pittsburgh Steelers
Since the 1990s, the Shanahan coaching tree has been the hallmark of offensively-minded systems. Outside zone, play action, pre-snap motion, and adaptability. Offensive minds today are still dominating the hardware. But recently, there has seemed to be a micro-shift. The AFC’s battleground is defined by competent quarterback play. Even those on the lower end, such as Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa and Tennessee’s Cam Ward, have shown or are showing flashes of talent. The key has shifted from finding ways to discover untapped potential in quarterbacks to figuring out how to disarm them (especially within the division) and build well-rounded defenses. And that is exactly where defensive head coaches have slipped in through the cracks.
The coaching carousel is almost over, almost as quickly as it had begun. And 3 of the first 5 coaches to be hired – Jeff Hafley for Miami, Robert Saleh for Tennessee, and Jesse Minter for Baltimore – were defensive coordinators. Why? These teams seek to build a tougher culture. How do you achieve a tougher culture? Build your defense. This season has shown that a defense carrying a struggling offense is more sustainable than an offense carrying a struggling defense (Looking at you, Cincinnati and Buffalo). Yes, the type of coaching a team needs depends on where they need to improve, but for most of these hiring teams, it has been for their defense.
Besides, the two teams about to face off in the Super Bowl, the Patriots and Seahawks, are coached by defensive minds. Both Mike Vrabel and Mike Macdonald shifted the culture on their arrival and helped return their defensive prowess, especially compared to the 2024 season. The Patriots elevated from a bottom-10 defense last year, while the Seahawks broke free of mediocrity. Even for teams that didn’t reach the top, like the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers, they had defenses that anchored them when offensive play didn’t suffice. Culture and toughness matter, especially when so many AFC games feel like shootouts.
In short, the AFC is too competitive not to evolve. The rapid emergence of younger teams has only raised the stakes. For an AFC team to have a chance to beat the gauntlet, they must change their systems, supplement development, connect the pieces together, and figure out ways to tear their opponents’ defenses apart effectively. In 2026, easy Sundays will be few and far between. If your team doesn’t care to check these boxes this season, they won’t just be behind; they will already be out of the race.
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