Get the Lobster Out: Looking Ahead to the NASCAR Round of Twelve
Peyton Martin | NILvana Sports
As the NASCAR Championship looms around the corner, the Round of Twelve is what stands between these drivers and the semifinal round on October 12th. With four drivers below the cut line, the following three races are imperative for all twelve of these drivers to all show up and show out.
Denny Hamlin with New Hampshire Motor Speedway’s Louden the Lobster
Before we get into the nitty-gritty, we have to talk about the elephant, or lobster, in the room – Louden the Lobster. At New Hampshire Motor Speedway, the next race in the NASCAR Playoffs and the first in the Round of 12, a unique trophy tradition has been started. When a driver wins, they hoist a, quite frankly, massive lobster in the air to celebrate. Now, on to the meat of the topic.
The cut line in the NASCAR playoffs format shows which four drivers are in danger of being dropped from the playoffs in the next round, and by how much. The four drivers under the line, Austin Cindric, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, and Tyler Reddick, aim to maximize their points earned in each stage and race ahead. Luckily for these drives, or unluckily for the rest of the pack, they are each less than four points away from the 8th-place driver in the playoffs – Bubba Wallace.
The Mobil 1 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas Speedway, and Bank of America Roval 400 at the Charlotte Motor Speedway Road Course are the three races in front of these drivers. The first two tracks are intermediate oval tracks, 1.058 miles long and 1.500 miles long, respectively, while the latter is a 2.320-mile road course. Both types of racetracks have their own racing styles, so it’ll be interesting to see which drivers excel on each specific weekend.
Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Chase Elliot, and Bubba Wallace are at the bottom four of the eight drivers above the cut line, each less than twenty points away from Austin Cindric, the top-sitting driver underneath the line. These four will feel similar pressure to the bottom four drivers since they are the ones most likely to be pushed to the bottom.
At the top of the pack, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell both have five race wins this season, with Kyle Larson following them with three wins. Rounding out the top four is William Byron, who had two wins, the same as all the drivers from five through eight. Each of these drivers is at least twenty points over the cut line for this round, but still has to push as hard as they can to continue to secure their spots and lengthen their lead on the rest of the pack. Despite having a collective fifteen race wins this season, no one can get comfortable in their lead now, especially not with this group of drivers.
Let’s focus on the four drivers at the bottom of the pack:
Austin Cindric
Cindric, who drives the number 2 car for Team Penske Ford, is the driver that a lot of people could potentially pick to be dropped before the next round, possibly influenced by his team’s list of mishaps throughout the season, most notably his tire catching fire at Bristol this past weekend. Despite these doubts, Cindric has achieved incredible race results this year, winning at Daytona International Speedway (2.500 miles) and Talladega Superspeedway (2.660 miles). With New Hampshire being a track that Cindric and Team Penske both excel at, an intermediate and flatter track, the playoffs could look very different for the number 2 car in the near future.
Ross Chastain
The driver of the number 1 Chevrolet Trackhouse Racing car is just two points away from the cut line, making the comeback to playoff contention in the future not seem so daunting. With some wishy-washy results under his belt this season, crawling back from last to first in Charlotte is just one example of this team’s grit and determination despite a couple of last-place results. While Chastain has won at Kansas before, he and the Trackhouse team need to pull some incredible results out of their back pocket on a couple of tracks that they normally run well. Chastain and his team will be hungrily looking for their first Cup Championship win, coming up short in the past few seasons, most notably to Joey Logano in the 2022 season.
Joey Logano
The three-time championship-winning driver of the number 22 Team Penske Ford car should never be counted out of championship contention. This season, however, Logano has only taken Victory Lane at one track, Texas Motor Speedway – a 1.500-mile intermediate oval course. This track echoes some of the qualities of New Hampshire and Kansas Speedway, suggesting good results for the Penske team. As the defending champion, Logano boasts three top-five finishes at New Hampshire, 5 at Kansas, and one at the Charlotte Roval in the past five years. Logano is projected to do very well this weekend and in the future. No one would be surprised to see him and the number 22 car in the playoffs through the end.
Tyler Reddick
Reddick, driver of the number 45 car for 23XI Racing Toyota, has had a rocky 2025 so far. With no wins to his name this season, he isn’t favored highly to continue past the Round of Twelve. However, Reddick has claimed a top-five spot in the past ten races despite his icy season. Reddick saw the Championship Four round in 2024 and will be itching for a return to the top. At the three races coming up, Reddick has consistently been in the top ten, winning at Kansas back in 2023. The team will be looking for a win to boost both the confidence within the driver and team and their points standing. With the rest of the pack looking at a promising future, Reddick and his team at 23XI will have to grind it out and push hard for a spot in the next round – something that isn’t unheard of or completely out of reach yet.
While some are sitting more comfortably than others, none of these twelve are safe, and will have to see some version of success within this round. These next races will be crucial to each driver’s points total and their future standings. Like a lobster, some will have to claw their way to the top to see the Round of Eight.
Sources
https://www.driveraverages.com
https://www.nascar.com/standings/nascar-cup-series
